If the volcanic eruptions on the Reykjanes Peninsula—which began on March 19, 2021, and show no signs of ending—have taught us anything, it is that Iceland is a land in constant formation. The country is located on tectonic plate boundaries, which run diagonally from the southwest corner to the northeast. The movements that occur beneath these intersections of the Earth’s crust regularly make their presence felt on the surface in varying degrees of intensity.
For the past three years, Icelanders have been thoroughly reminded of their proximity to the forces of nature. Since the ongoing volcanic eruption series began in the spring of 2021 with an eruption in Geldingadalir near Fagradalsfjall, a total of nine eruptions have occurred on the Reykjanes Peninsula. The initial eruptions were far from populated areas and attracted a large number of tourists, both locals and foreign visitors. They were referred to as “tourist eruptions” and were treated as just another attraction for travellers. However, the seismic activity and volcanic eruptions since December 2023 have been dangerously close to populated areas, specifically Grindavík, causing significant disruptions to the community there. Not to mention the tragic fatal accident that occurred during earthworks as a result. For the first time in 50 years, a populated area in Iceland faces a real threat from lava flows.
The Threat Has Always Been There
But how surprising should the ongoing volcanic activity on the Reykjanes Peninsula really be to us? Was there no way to foresee the possibility of such disturbances? While the events of recent months caught most people off guard, they did not surprise everyone. Ever since the Vestmannaeyjar eruption over half a century ago, Trausti Valsson, an urban planner and professor emeritus at the University of Iceland, has advocated for taking potential natural hazards into account when planning settlements in Iceland. He believes building in hazardous areas without precautionary measures is irresponsible.
“The reality is that we must consider the circumstances here in Iceland and stop building recklessly on fault lines where there is a likelihood of earthquakes and even lava flows,” says Trausti in an interview with Icelandic Times. Although he retired from teaching at the University of Iceland nearly a decade ago, it is clear that Trausti remains passionate about this issue and is determined to raise awareness of the imminent threat. “I have pointed out the facts of this matter for decades, and while people may not take me seriously, the events in Grindavík and the surrounding infrastructure should be enough to alert authorities to the danger,” he adds.
A New Volcanic Period Has Begun
As mentioned earlier, Trausti has tirelessly emphasized the need for public authorities to address the imminent danger posed by the ongoing volcanic activity. Unfortunately, vested interests often cloud common sense, leading to oversight. Presently, approximately 80% of the nation resides in the southwest corner of Iceland, where the threat of natural disasters is very real. The region is dominated by geothermal activity, and as Trausti has pointed out, this can manifest in various ways: lava flows, ashfall, earthquakes, and floods from melting glaciers.
But where are the main risk areas in the capital region? “It’s safe to say that a new volcanic period has begun on the Reykjanes Peninsula, and we simply cannot rule out the possibility that this activity could extend to any of the six volcanic systems found on the peninsula,” explains Trausti. “Recent events at Fagradalsfjall and Svartsengi serve as reminders, but there has also been increased activity in the Krýsuvík system and the Brennisteinsfjöll area. We must bear in mind that these systems produced the lava found in Garðabær, Hafnarfjörður, and Reykjavík, and repetition of such events cannot be dismissed.”
Proactive Measures in the Face of Volcanic Activity
In anticipation, precautions must be taken once Reykjanes awakens, according to Trausti. “Predicting the future is, of course, impossible, whether here or elsewhere. However, it’s essential to be prepared for the worst-case scenario. Defending the Vellir area in southern Hafnarfjörður, built on recent lava, will unavoidably come at a cost. But neglecting it would have far greater consequences, and that can be avoided. Constructing protective barriers for this particular area is, in fact, unavoidable. It’s akin to insuring your car—you invest in insurance, hoping nothing happens. Yet, calamities sometimes occur unexpectedly, and that uncertainty warrants the utmost caution.”
Trausti also highlights that the current situation in the capital region involves urban expansion encroaching upon fault zones. Nevertheless, building on stable ground between faults remains feasible. “By doing so, we can prevent accidents and reduce the impact of natural disasters in the future.”
Text by Jón Agnar Ólason
